Showing posts with label property. Show all posts
Showing posts with label property. Show all posts

Monday, February 19, 2024

Can China deal with debts and property crisis? – Arthur Kroeber

 

Arthur Kroeber

China’s economy is dealing with some tough years, writes leading economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®in ChinaFile, especially now that it does not have enough tools with debts and the property crisis like it did in the past. “So we need to brace for the consequences of the Xi model: slower growth in China, a big rise in Chinese technology exports, and more protectionism in the rest of the world,” he writes.

Arthur Kroeber:

China’s economic malaise results from a combination of political decisions, structural factors, and policy mistakes. The central reason for it is that Xi Jinping has decided to make national security and technological upgrading—not economic growth—his policy priorities.

The broadening definition of national security, and the increased influence of security interests in economic policy, have soured private investor confidence. The focus on technological upgrading has led to an economic strategy that relies almost exclusively on industrial policy. This means that the government devotes most of its attention to the supply side of the economy: boosting production of semiconductors, clean energy equipment, electric vehicles, industrial machinery, ships, and other products seen as needed to increase the country’s technological capability and self-sufficiency. Virtually no serious effort goes into figuring out how to unlock domestic demand—especially from households, which now save about a third of their income, one of the highest savings rates in the world.

These policies mean that China’s economy will have two faces in the coming years. The chronic shortage of demand will mean disappointing GDP growth—probably 3-4 percent on average over the rest of the decade—and a constant struggle to shake off deflation. But at the same time, its technology-intensive sectors will thrive, thanks to both government support and China’s uniquely competitive manufacturing ecosystem. The result will be persistent high trade surpluses and, probably, a strong wave of protectionism from countries that want to preserve their own industrial capacity.

This policy stance also makes it very hard for China to solve two of its biggest structural problems: the collapsing property market and the huge and growing debt burdens of local governments. The last time China faced a challenge of this scale was the late 1990s, when nearly half of all bank loans went bad. At that time, it responded with a combination of financial engineering to postpone the reckoning of bad debts, well-targeted infrastructure stimulus, and aggressive deregulation of manufacturing and housing which unlocked huge new sources of entrepreneurship and household demand. As a result, China grew out of its problems and by 2010 became the world’s second-biggest economy.

A similar approach today would recognize that deregulation of services—which account for more than half the economy, and all net new employment—is the main path to boosting consumer demand and accelerating economic growth. Too much of the service economy is either in state hands, or burdened by stunting regulations. But such a policy would conflict directly with Xi’s desire to keep the state’s finger on all economic levers. So we need to brace for the consequences of the Xi model: slower growth in China, a big rise in Chinese technology exports, and more protectionism in the rest of the world.

More views of other economists in ChinaFile.

Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

Are you looking for more financial experts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.

Thursday, July 27, 2017

Winners in luxury: property, baijiu and Tesla - Rupert Hoogewerf

Rupert Hoogewerf
Spending on luxury in China went up over 80 percent over the past ten years, reveals the Luxury Consumer Price Index (LCPI). HuRun chief researcher Rupert Hoogewerf points in ECNS at three major winners: property, baijiu and Tesla.

ECNS:
The gauge represents a basket of 116 high-end goods and services, 20 percent of which are imported. It is the 11th of this kind issued by HuRun research institute, which tracks changes among China's high-net-worth individuals. 
The index compares the price level from June 2016 to June 2017, while noting that the LCPI rose by 3.6 percent so far this year, outpacing a 1.5 percent increase in CPI. 
"What impresses me most this year is the increase in property prices, baijiu (a Chinese alcohol), and Tesla cars, which drive the general luxury consumer price up," said Rupert Hoogewerf, chairman and chief researcher of the institute. 
Of the 11 categories measured by HuRun, luxury housing price led the upward trend, up 16.6 percent from the previous year. And baijiu recorded huge price surge, with Wuliangye, one of China's most famous high-end Baijiu brands, rising as high as 30.5 percent. 
The LCPI report attributed more expensive luxury houses and imports to the depreciation of yuan, as many foreign currencies became stronger, with exchange rate of US dollar against renminbi up 3.6 percent year-on-year as of June 9. 
Gold and diamond maintained momentum, up 9.6 percent and 3.3 percent respectively. And Tesla electric cars increased by 4.5 percent, thank to favorable policies in China to support electric car development, the report noted. 
However, wedding and healthcare markets witnessed a decline for the first time, dropping 3.6 percent and 3.5 percent respectively.
More at ECNS.

Rupert Hoogewerf is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

Are you looking for more luxury experts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.    

Wednesday, July 20, 2016

Luxury CPI keeps on rising - Rupert Hoogewerf

Rupert Hoogewerf
Rupert Hoogewerf
Despite a relative slowdown in the country´s economic growth, China´s luxury price index saw the fastest rise in five years outpacing the CPI, show the latest report by the Hurun Institute, according to the Shanghai Daily. Luxury property, health and education are the driving forces, says Rupert Hoogewerf, Hurun Chairman.

The Shanghai Daily:
The gauge of China’s luxury buying power, based on a basket of 124 luxury goods and services, rose 5.1 percent in June from the same month of last year. Comparatively the country’s CPI rose a mere 1.9 percent, the National Bureau of Statistics said. 
“Luxury property, health and education drove up the Luxury Consumer Price Index this year, coupled with a decrease in the value of the yuan against most major currencies,” said Rupert Hoogewerf, chairman and chief researcher of Hurun Report. 
About 60 percent of the surveyed luxuries cost more than last year. 
Property was the biggest riser, gaining over 13 percent — a big turnaround from last year’s 1.9 percent decline. 
High-end health care costs rose for a third consecutive year, up 11.7 percent, while top education continued its decade-long uptrend with a 6.2 percent price hike.
More in the Shanghai Daily.

Rupert Hoogewerf is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers´request form.

Are you interested in more experts on the luxury goods market? Do check out this list.

Friday, March 14, 2014

Reforms cast uncertainty over property markets - Wei Gu

Wei Gu
Wei Gu
Announced reforms in China might have a profound impact on the property markets. Financial liberalization might cause a downturn, but land and hukou reform might have a positive influence. WSJ wealth editor Wei Gu discusses with Oliver Barron of NSBO China Research the likely impact.

Wei Gu is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need her at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers´request form.

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